Many experts think, it is difficult for the rate for incorporation into the power network of photovoltaic of our country to appear on the stage in short term. The new round of photovoltaic incorporate into the power networks the intersection of project and chartered right, call for bid, hold soon this year, family property bound pair this round win a bid of prediction of price, have big difference, more enterprise when cost of electricity-generating could realize on earth to photovoltaic " The par " Surf the Net, it is full of doubt how the government will calculate rate for incorporation into the power network of photovoltaic. For this reason, China Security News reporter has specially interviewed the photovoltaic expert of research institute of national development and reform committee energy Wang SiCheng to analyze.
China Security News: How do you predict the cost of electricity-generating of supply and demand situation and photovoltaic of global polycrystalline silicon?
Wang SiCheng: In the global range, the situation of polycrystalline silicon supply exceeds demand will be also sustained, since by 2012 at present, the range for overly asking of global polycrystalline silicon will be also strengthened continuously. This means too, the price of polycrystalline silicon will also descent slowly.
Data display, the price of high pure polycrystal silicon material is from 365.8 dollars / kilogram in October of 2008, 51.9 dollars / kilogram dropping to December of 2009. The assembly price of the solar battery is from 3.55 dollars / Wp in October of 2008, 1.78 dollars / Wp dropping to December of 2009. Ago, the price of the solar battery producer of our country is probably among 1.55-1.7 dollars / Wp.
China Security News: Which are the factor influencing rate for incorporation into the power network of solar cell?
Wang SiCheng: Local the intersection of solar energy and resource, electric energy production, efficiency, reliability and the intersection of electric wire netting and quality, scale of investment for the first time, operate the maintenance charge of system, and the other boundary conditions including loan proportion, interest rate, tax revenue and profit level,etc.. Among them, local solar energy resource and original capital cost are key factors the most of influencing the rate for incorporation into the power network.
China Security News: What kind of analysis do you have on project tender price of photovoltaic of Dunhuang of last year?
Wang SiCheng: Through calculating, to pacify in reporting 0.69 yuan / China of National Investment Company of the tender price of kilowatt-hour originally, its system invests about 15,000 yuan / kilowatt, it does only 3.6% of internal rate of return of this project, it is less than its loan rate, sustain economic losses.
And to the wide nuclear power source association in the bid at 1.09 yuan / kilowatt-hour finally, its solar battery of cost is 10 yuan / Wp, invests about 20,000 yuan / kilowatt systematically, if over generate electricity for 2000 hours, can realize about 8% of internal rate of return finally. Such an earning rate should be the bottom margin that enterprises can bear.
China Security News: In your view, when can realize solar cell " The par " Net surfing?
Wang SiCheng: Should define solar cell first " The par " Concept of surfing the Net. Par we speak surf the Net, divide into, transmit electricity side surf the Net and mix electrical side, surf the Net two kinds of situations. Realize transmitting electricity in the side and surf the Net, namely for electricity power enterprise, the price of electricity to be realized and is close to with the regular rate for incorporation into the power network, namely 0.33-0.36 yuan / kilowatt-hour; And want, realize, mix electrical side, surf the Net, so long as electricity power enterprise reach 0.5-1.4 / price of electricity of kilowatt-hour.
We draw preliminary conclusion, namely by 2015, photovoltaic price of electricity drop to 1 / following kilowatt-hour, first mixing the electrical side and realizing solar cell " Surf the Net in par " ,By 2020, the price of electricity of photovoltaic will drop to 0.6 yuan / about kilowatt-hour, can realize solar cell on the side of power generating " Surf the Net in par " .
China Security News: How was the above-mentioned conclusion estimated out?
Wang SiCheng: The average regular rate for incorporation into the power network of 2009 in our country is 0.34 yuan / kilowatt-hour, if regard 1.5 yuan / kilowatt-hour as the base price of rate for incorporation into the power network of solar cell of 2009 of our country, drop by 8%, regular of the rates for incorporation into the power network and go up by 6% and calculate every year every year according to the price of electricity of photovoltaic; By 2015, photovoltaic of our country installation about 15,000 / kWp, 1 of price of electricity / following kilowatt-hour; The price of 10,000 yuan of installation of 2020 years / kWp, the price of electricity reaches 0.6-0.8 yuan / kilowatt-hour.
China Security News: Suppose the price of electricity of photovoltaic of our country is 0.6 yuan / kilowatt-hour in 2020, calculate according to the subsidy policy of the price of electricity, how much amount subsidy volume does photovoltaic aircrew which plans certain scale need to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems?
Wang SiCheng: Calculate according to 8% annual earning rate, by 2020 if the intersection of photovoltaic and installation to plan 10GW, price of electricity for 10 year replenish, total, need 36,018 million, if build photovoltaic installation of 100GW, need to replenish the subsidy volume of 102,861 million yuan, can find to compare with, such a subsidy amount is not as high as what the external world imagine.
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